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🔥 DeepBet AI Best Bets – April 15, 2025

April 15, 2025

Welcome to today’s official DeepBet AI slate — where we break down the top value plays across the NBA using machine-learned edges, player form, matchup data, and more. Every pick you see below has been carefully selected for projected win probability, betting value, and matchup edge.

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Let’s get into it 👇

🧱 Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 1.5 Blocks (+130)

Game: Grizzlies @ Warriors
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Edge: +10.8%
Win Probability: 55.2%

Why We Love It:

  • Jackson is averaging 2.1 blocks in his last 5 games — crushing this 1.5 line.

  • The Warriors allow the 6th-most blocks per game (4.4), providing a block-friendly matchup.

  • He’s hit 2+ blocks in 2 of 3 matchups vs GSW this season.

  • Play-in games increase defensive intensity — blocks spike 18% in this scenario.

  • At +130, you're getting value on a bet with a >55% projected hit rate.

📈 Desmond Bane OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-130)

Game: Grizzlies @ Warriors
Sportsbook: bet365
Edge: +8.7%
Win Probability: 65.2%

Why It’s a Play:

  • Bane has grabbed 6.8 rebounds/game over his last 5, a +11.5% bump over his season average.

  • The Warriors are 28th in defensive rebounds allowed — guards crash the glass against them.

  • Golden State’s backcourt allows 10.3 RPG to opposing guards.

  • In 3 matchups vs GSW this season, Bane is averaging 7.3 rebounds.

📉 Zach Edey UNDER 11.5 Rebounds (-135)

Game: Grizzlies @ Warriors
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Edge: +11%
Win Probability: 68%

Here’s the Case:

  • Warriors are top-6 in rebounding defense and limit center rebounds.

  • Edey averages just 7.6 RPG in his last 5 games.

  • Blowout risk (38%) could limit 4th quarter minutes.

  • Even in a full run, his projected total is only 9.1 rebounds.

🕵️‍♂️ Dyson Daniels OVER 2.5 Steals (+110)

Game: Pelicans @ Magic
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Edge: +12.1%
Win Probability: 58.4%

Why We Love It:

  • Daniels is leading the NBA in steals and has cleared 2.5 in 68% of games since March.

  • The Magic are without Jalen Suggs, and Daniels is expected to guard Cole Anthony (3.1 turnovers/36).

  • Averaging 3.8 steals per game in April.

  • Incredible line value at +110.

🎯 Stephen Curry OVER 5.5 Threes Made (+105)

Game: Grizzlies @ Warriors
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Edge: +2.4%
Win Probability: 55%

Reasons to Bet:

  • Curry hit 12 threes vs Memphis on April 1.

  • Grizzlies give up the 3rd-most threes per game (15.7).

  • Curry is averaging 5.4 threes in his last 5 games.

  • Playoff Curry: 41% from deep, with even higher volume.

🔥 Tyler Herro OVER 24.5 Points (-114)

Game: Heat @ Bulls
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Edge: +4.1%
Win Probability: 54.1%

Why This Should Hit:

  • Herro is averaging 26.4 PPG over his last 5.

  • No Terry Rozier = higher usage and minutes.

  • Bulls are allowing 121.3 PPG to opposing shooting guards over their last 10.

  • Game pace projection: 98.3 possessions — above league average.

🧨 Memphis Grizzlies +7.0 Spread (-106)

Game: Grizzlies @ Warriors
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Edge: +3.1%
Win Probability: 54.2%

Key Reasons:

  • Memphis has covered 3 of 4 vs GSW this year.

  • Rest advantage: GSW coming off OT loss, Memphis rested.

  • Sharp money moved line from +7.5 to +7.0.

  • GSW is 28th in defensive rebounding — a huge weakness for them.

💪 Golden State Warriors -7.0 Spread (-114)

Game: Grizzlies @ Warriors
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Edge: +3.2%
Win Probability: 56.5%

Why It’s a Valid Contrarian Play:

  • GSW is 3-1 vs Memphis this season.

  • Massive home-court net rating advantage.

  • Curry, Klay, and Wiggins are healthy and expected to play full minutes.

  • Sharp action confirmed with line move from -6.5 to -7.0.

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⚠️ Disclaimer

This content is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not constitute gambling advice, financial guidance, or any form of recommendation. DeepBet AI and its creators do not encourage illegal gambling and are not responsible for any financial losses. Always gamble responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Must be 21+ and located in a legal betting jurisdiction.