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DeepChamp AI’s Top NBA Picks for May 2, 2025

May 02, 2025

If you’re looking to turn your NBA fandom into smarter bets, you’ve come to the right place. The DeepChamp AI engine has crunched the numbers, analyzed matchups and identified four high-value bets for tonight’s slate. Read on for the breakdowns, then get access to unlimited AI-powered picks.

Tonight’s Best Bets

  • Alperen Sengun OVER 10.5 Rebounds (+105)

  • Josh Hart UNDER 10.5 Points (+102)

  • Jrue Holiday UNDER 9.5 Points (+100)

  • Warriors Shooting Guard OVER 5.5 Points (-130)

Let’s dive into why each of these bets makes sense—and how DeepChamp AI arrives at these recommendations.

  1. Alperen Sengun OVER 10.5 Rebounds (+105)

Sengun has been a rebounding machine in these playoffs, pulling down an average of 12.3 boards per game—nearly two more than his regular-season mark. Tonight’s opponent has struggled on the glass all year, ranking in the bottom third of the league for rebounds allowed. Factor in Houston’s uptempo pace and Sengun should have plenty of opportunities to crash the boards. The line opened at -110 but sharp action pushed it to +105, signaling positive expected value.

  1. Josh Hart UNDER 10.5 Points (+102)

Hart’s scoring output has dipped in the postseason, down from 13.6 points per game in the regular season to just 10.8 so far in the playoffs. The Celtics excel at limiting opposing shooting guards—allowing just 18.9 points per game to the position—and tonight’s slower pace means fewer possessions and scoring chances. At plus-money odds, this under is a textbook example of taking advantage of a player’s role reduction in high-pressure games.

  1. Jrue Holiday UNDER 9.5 Points (+100)

With the ball shared more evenly in this series, Holiday’s usage rate has dipped and his shot attempts have trended lower. The Knicks’ defensive scheme has held opponents to 104.5 points per game in the postseason, and Holiday has posted under nine points in two of his last three outings. The implied probability at even odds is 50 percent, but our models peg the true probability closer to 48 percent—creating a slight edge you can exploit with confidence.

  1. Warriors Shooting Guard OVER 5.5 Points (-130)

This pick may look chalky but it holds real value: the Warriors’ backup shooting guard is averaging 6.5 points per game this year and has maintained that mark in the playoffs so far. Playing at home at Chase Center provides an additional bump—historically about +0.8 points per game for that role. Tonight’s matchup features a defense that ranks 18th against shooting guards, allowing 4.2 percent more points than league average. All signs point to him clearing this modest line.

Why DeepChamp AI?

DeepChamp AI combines machine learning, real-time odds integration and historical matchup data to surface bets with true expected value. No more guesswork, no more endless spreadsheets—just clear, confidence-inspiring picks delivered straight to your device.

Disclaimer

This content is for entertainment purposes only. Sports betting involves risk and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. Always comply with local laws and regulations.