March 13th Prop Bets!

March 13, 2025

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ANALYSIS #1

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 8:56 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • New Orleans Pelicans vs. Orlando Magic

  • Time: March 13, 2025 · 5:10 PM PDT

Best Prop Bet:

  • Zion Williamson

    • Over 5.5 Assists at +120

    • Edge: Projected 6.3 vs. Line 5.5 → +0.8

    • Probability: 58%

BET ANALYSIS

Zion’s playmaking surge against Orlando’s weak perimeter defense creates value in assists.

  • Recent Form

    • 12 assists in his last game (triple-double vs. Clippers)

    • Rolling average: 7.2 assists over the last 3 games (+31% vs. season avg)

    • Trend: +1.7 assists/game since All-Star break

  • Game Flow

    • Pelicans rank 26th in pace (96.2 possessions/game)

    • Magic allow 24.1 AST/game (4th most in the league)

    • Expected Possessions: ~79.3

    • Assist Impact: 79.3 poss × 22.3% usage × 35.7% AST% = 6.3 projected assists

  • Blowout Risk

    • Spread: ORL -2.5 → Blowout Probability ~ 25%

    • Minutes Impact: ~31.5 projected

    • Usage remains high in competitive games (~28.7% usage when margin <10)

  • Matchup Edge

    • Magic allow 46.2 paint points/game (3rd most); Zion has 18.1 drives/game

    • Primary defender (Banchero) yields 4.7 AST/75 poss to PFs

  • Usage Rate

    • Base Usage ~ 28.1%

    • Adjusted Usage ~ 29.3% (accounting for injuries)

  • Line Movement

    • Opened at 5.0 (-110), moved to 5.5 (+120)

    • ~68% of sharp money on the Over

  • Statistical Edge

    • AST/36 = 6.1 (would clear 5.5 in 32 mins)

    • 8.7 potential assists/game (3rd among PFs)

    • Final Edge = 6.3 projected vs. 5.5 line → +14.5% value

Value Rating: 8.2/10

  • Probability: 58% vs implied 45.5%

  • Odds Value: +27.5% relative to implied

Key Secondary Option

  • Paolo Banchero Under 25.5 Points at -120

    • Magic rank 25th in offensive rating; Banchero shooting 44% FG last 5 games

    • Probability = 63% vs implied 54.5%

Avoid

  • Zion Williamson Points Over 23.5 at -105

    • Magic allow 3rd-fewest paint points to PFs

    • Zion is 0/3 on this line vs. Top 10 defenses

DISCLAIMER

This analysis is provided for ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. It does not constitute gambling, financial, legal, or professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All betting involves risk; wager only what you can afford to lose. DeepBet AI and its creators are not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information. Bet responsibly.

ANALYSIS #2

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 9:05 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks

  • Time: March 13, 2025 · 7:30 PM ET

Best Prop Bet:

  • Kyle Kuzma

    • Points Over 13.5 at -122

    • Edge: +7.2% (Implied ~55% vs. Projected ~62%)

    • Probability: 62%

BET ANALYSIS

Kuzma's expanded offensive role against the Lakers' depleted frontcourt creates scoring upside.

  • Recent Form

    • Averaged 16.2 PPG in last 5 games (+22% above season avg)

    • Rolling 5-game average: 16.2 vs. season 14.9 (+8.7% variance)

    • Shooting 51.9% FG in March

  • Game Flow

    • Lakers allow 48.0% FG to PFs (7th-worst defensive rating)

    • Expected possessions ~ 98.4 (Bucks' 12th-ranked pace × ~36 minutes)

    • Pace-adjusted projection = 14.9 × 1.18 matchup factor = 17.6 points

  • Blowout Risk

    • Spread: MIL -4.5 → ~25% blowout probability

    • Minutes adjustment ~28.7

    • Usage boost: 16.7% base × 1.12 (Portis suspension) = 18.7%

  • Matchup Edge

    • Lakers allow 13.4 PPG to opposing PFs (4th-worst)

    • Kuzma’s H2H average vs. LAL: 15.3 PPG (+2.8 above overall avg)

  • Usage Rate

    • Current usage ~16.7%

    • Portis’ suspended usage redistributes +3.97 PPG in the offense

  • Defensive Matchup

    • Likely defended by Finney-Smith, who allows 46.8% FG to PFs

    • Shot location success: 51.9% FG in March for Kuzma

  • Line Movement

    • Opened at 13.0 → now 13.5 (-122)

    • 68% handle on Over

  • Statistical Edge

    • True Shooting% = 57.8% vs. positional avg 54.1%

    • Monte Carlo simulation suggests 73% probability clearing 13.5

DISCLAIMER

This analysis is for ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY and is not financial, legal, or professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Bet at your own risk, and only what you can afford to lose.

ANALYSIS #3

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 9:07 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks

  • Time: March 13, 2025 · 7:30 PM ET

Best Prop Bet:

  • Austin Reaves

    • Over 5.5 Assists at -158

    • Edge: 7.2 avg last 5 games vs. 61% breakeven → +12.3%

    • Probability: ~67%

BET ANALYSIS

LeBron James’ absence forces Reaves into an elevated playmaking role.

  • Recent Form

    • 10 assists vs. Nets on Monday

    • Rolling avg: 7.2 assists/game last 5

    • +22% above season avg (5.9 APG)

  • Game Flow

    • Lakers rank 8th in pace (~112.9 possessions/game)

    • Expected Possessions ~ 38.4 for Reaves

  • Blowout Risk

    • Blowout probability ~38% (Bucks -5.5)

    • Adjusted minutes ~ 29 if the game gets out of hand

  • Matchup Edge

    • Bucks allow the 12th-most assists to SGs (~4.8)

    • Reaves’ usage jumps from 18.7% to ~23.4% without LeBron

  • Line Movement

    • Shifted from 5.0 (-110) to 5.5 (-158) on LeBron news

    • 78% handle on Over

  • Statistical Edge

    • xAST = 7.2 vs. line 5.5

    • 22.3% assist percentage w/o LeBron

Value Rationale

  1. Role Certainty: Elevated usage with LeBron out

  2. Pace Synergy: Lakers’ 112.9 pace → more assist chances

  3. Market Inefficiency: -158 implies ~61% vs. a 67% true likelihood

DISCLAIMER

Provided solely for ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES. Not financial or professional advice. Bet responsibly and only within your means.

ANALYSIS #4

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 9:08 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

  • Time: March 13, 2025 · 7:10 PM PDT

Best Prop Bet:

  • Stephen Curry

    • Over 4.5 Threes at -140

    • Edge: +3.8% (True ~60% vs. Implied ~56.2%)

    • Probability: ~62.1%

BET ANALYSIS

Curry’s elite shooting volume and the Kings’ defensive vulnerabilities set up optimal conditions for the 3PM over.

  • Recent Form

    • 5+ threes in 3 of his last 4 games

    • Rolling 3PM avg: 5.0 (last 5 games)

    • +13.6% above season average (4.4 → 5.0)

  • Game Flow

    • Warriors: 114.3 possessions/game (3rd in NBA)

    • Kings allow 14.4 opponent 3PM/game (3rd-worst)

    • Expected 3PA ~ 12.8

  • Blowout Risk

    • Spread: GSW -7 → ~45% blowout probability

    • Garbage time usage still remains somewhat intact

  • Matchup Edge

    • SAC allows 37.1% from three to PGs (4th-worst)

    • Curry’s 39.8% from deep vs. that matchup is strong

  • Line Movement

    • Opened 4.5 (-120) → now -140

    • 68% handle on Over

  • Statistical Edge

    • Poisson model suggests 62.1% to make ≥5

    • Z-Score ~ 1.4 (favorable)

DISCLAIMER

Provided for ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES. Not financial or professional advice. Wager responsibly.

ANALYSIS #5

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 9:10 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls

  • Time: March 13, 2025 · 5:10 PM PDT

Best Prop Bet:

  • Tre Jones

    • Assists Over 6.5 at -154

    • Edge: +12.3% (Projected 7.3 vs. line 6.5)

    • Probability: 63.8% (vs ~60.6% implied)

BET ANALYSIS

Increased playmaking role in a depleted backcourt creates value on Tre Jones’ assist prop.

  • Recent Form

    • 7.3 APG in last 5 games (with 35+ min)

    • 8.2 assists/36 over last 10 (+18.4% above season avg)

  • Game Flow

    • Bulls rank 20th in pace (~98.2)

    • Nets’ defense: 27th-ranked (allows 116.6 PPG)

  • Blowout Risk

    • Spread unknown, but teams are sub-.500

    • Minutes floor ~32 even in moderate blowout

  • Matchup Edge

    • Nets allow 28.8 APG (25th overall)

    • 9.1 APG in 2 previous meetings vs. Brooklyn

  • Injury Impact

    • Josh Giddey’s 6.7 APG removed → more for Jones

    • Potential assists redistributed

  • Line Movement

    • Opened 5.5 (-120), steamed to 6.5 (-154)

    • 73% of money on Over

Statistical Edge

  • 89th percentile in AST/48 among PGs

  • 94th percentile in Potential Assists (~14.7/game)

DISCLAIMER

For ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Gamble responsibly.

ANALYSIS #6

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 9:11 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls

  • Time: March 13, 2025 · 5:10 PM PDT

Best Prop Bet:

  • Nicolas Claxton

    • Blocks Over 1.5 at -145

    • Edge: +0.31 (True probability ~64.7% vs. implied ~59.2%)

    • Probability: 64.7%

BET ANALYSIS

Claxton’s elite rim protection meets Chicago’s porous interior offense.

  • Recent Form

    • 2.3 BPG over last 15 games

    • +0.77 BPG vs. season average (51% increase)

  • Game Flow

    • Bulls allow 52.3 PPG in the paint (3rd-worst)

    • Blocks/36 for Claxton ~ 2.6

  • Blowout Risk

    • Spread: CHI -3 → ~12% blowout chance

    • Minutes floor ~28

  • Matchup Edge

    • Bulls rank 27th in blocks allowed to centers (3.1/gm)

    • Historical cover rate: 71% when playing >25 min

Statistical Edge

  • Z-Score ~ 1.0 (84th percentile for blocks)

  • Claxton sees 2.3 BPG → line is 1.5

DISCLAIMER

For ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Bet responsibly.

ANALYSIS #7

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 9:13 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons

  • Time: March 13, 2025 · 4:10 PM PDT

Best Prop Bet:

  • Jordan Poole

    • Assists Over 3.5 at -132

    • Edge: +1.3 assists (4.8 season avg vs. 3.5 line)

    • Probability: 63% vs. ~56.9% implied

BET ANALYSIS

Poole’s elevated playmaking role (with Brogdon injured) points to 4+ assists.

  • Recent Form

    • 5.2 APG last 5 games (+8% above season avg of 4.8)

    • 83% over rate on 3.5 line in his last 15 games

  • Game Flow

    • Pistons allow 6.8 AST/game to SGs (4th most)

    • Expected ~104 touches in ~32 min

  • Blowout Risk

    • 14-point spread → ~47% blowout probability

    • Adjusted minutes ~28.4

  • Line Movement

    • Opened 3.5 (-115) → now -132

    • Sharp action: 73% handle on Over

Statistical Edge

  • AST/36 ~5.4 → ~4.6 in 30-31 min

  • Probability ~63% vs. 56.9% implied

DISCLAIMER

Provided for ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES. Bet responsibly.

ANALYSIS #8

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 9:16 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

  • Time: March 13, 2025 · 7:10 PM PDT

Best Prop Bet:

  • Zach LaVine

    • Over 20.5 Points at -136

    • Edge: 3.8% (Implied ~57.6% vs. Projected ~61.4%)

    • Probability: 61.4%

BET ANALYSIS

Elevated usage and defensive mismatches create prime scoring conditions for LaVine.

  • Recent Form

    • 24.3 PPG in last 3 games (+30.6% vs. season avg)

    • True Shooting% = 58.3%

  • Game Flow

    • Kings: 9th in pace (100.2), Warriors: 8th (101.1)

    • High-possession environment

  • Blowout Risk

    • Warriors -8.5 → ~42% blowout probability

    • Adjusted minutes ~34.1

  • Matchup Edge

    • Warriors allow 114.9 PPG to SGs (6th worst in West)

    • Shot location success: 48.5% midrange vs. 44.1% allowed

  • Line Movement

    • Opened at 19.5 (-110), rose to 20.5 (-136)

    • 78% Over tickets, 62% sharp money

  • Statistical Edge

    • Projection: 22–26 points (68% CI)

    • Value Rating 8.2/10

Secondary Value Play

  • Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Threes at -140

    • Kings allow 14.4 3PM/game (3rd worst)

    • Curry is 5+ 3PM in 3 of last 4

DISCLAIMER

For ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES. Past outcomes do not guarantee future results. Wager responsibly.

ANALYSIS #9

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 9:19 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans

  • Time: Thursday, March 13, 8:00 PM ET

Best Prop Bet:

  • Wendell Carter Jr.

    • Over 8.5 Rebounds at -130

    • Edge: +1.7 vs. season average

    • Probability: 58%

BET ANALYSIS

Wendell Carter Jr. projects 9–12 rebounds vs. New Orleans’ weak interior D.

  • Recent Form

    • 12 rebounds in last game vs. Houston

    • 9.3 RPG last 5 games (+24% vs. season)

  • Game Flow

    • Pelicans allow 43.4 RPG (4th-most)

    • ~98 possessions → ~12.7% boost in rebound chances

  • Blowout Risk

    • Spread: ORL -1.5 → ~18% blowout chance

    • Minutes stable at ~31

  • Matchup Edge

    • Opposing C Yves Missi allows 12.3 RPG to centers

    • Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rebounding %

  • Line Movement

    • 8.5 (-120) → 8.5 (-130)

    • 73% handle on Over

DISCLAIMER

ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Bet responsibly.

ANALYSIS #10

Date: Mar 13, 2025 at 9:19 AM PST
Type: Bet Analysis

RESULT

Upcoming Game:

  • Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

  • Time: March 13, 2025 · 10:00 PM ET

Best Prop Bet:

  • Malik Monk

    • Assists Over 5.5 at -128

    • Edge: +1.3 (5.8 avg vs. 5.5 line)

    • Probability: 63.2% vs ~56.3% implied

BET ANALYSIS

Strong playmaking role vs. Warriors’ average perimeter defense provides value on Malik Monk’s assists.

  • Recent Form

    • 6.4 APG last 5 games (+18% vs. season avg)

    • Rolling average = 6.0

  • Game Flow

    • Kings: 7th in pace (~98.4)

    • ~65.6 possessions for Monk

  • Blowout Risk

    • Warriors -6.5 → ~49.5% blowout probability

    • Adjusted ~25 minutes, but usage likely remains high

  • Matchup Edge

    • Warriors allow 8.9 assists to SGs (6th-worst)

    • Potential assists ~7.2

  • Line Movement

    • Opened 5.0 (-110), now 5.5 (-128)

    • 73% handle on Over

  • Injury Impact

    • Sabonis questionable → redistributes ~1.2 additional assists to Monk

DISCLAIMER

Provided for ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES. Bet responsibly.

FINAL NOTE

All analyses above are snapshots for informational use regarding potential betting opportunities on March 13, 2025. Please wager responsibly and note that none of the above constitutes guaranteed outcomes, financial, or legal advice.