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May 07, 2025

If you’re looking to get an edge on today’s NBA Playoff slate, DeepChamp AI has done the heavy lifting for you. These six props are backed by machine-learned data, matchup modeling, and a value-based edge rating system.

Get unlimited daily picks, real-time updates, and advanced breakdowns with DeepChamp AI.

🔥 Evan Mobley Over 9.5 Rebounds (-108)

Mobley has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 playoff games. Facing a fast-paced Indiana team (4th in pace) that funnels boards to opposing power forwards, Mobley is projected for 10+ rebounds. He also pulled down 12 in Game 1 of the series.

Why It Hits:

  • Pacers allow 12.3 RPG to opposing PFs (3rd most)

  • Mobley averages 11.2 RPG vs Indiana this season

  • Our model gives this a 58.3% hit probability

🔥 Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 Blocks (+114)

Porzingis is averaging 2.1 blocks per game over his last 10 contests and faces a Knicks team that allows the 3rd-highest block rate on drives. He had 3 blocks in Game 1 and is projected for 2.3 tonight.

Why It Hits:

  • Rolling average = 2.1 blocks per game

  • High matchup rating (141) vs Knicks' frontcourt

  • +114 odds give this pick a 54% win probability

🔥 Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (-125)

Jokic continues to act as the engine of Denver’s offense. He’s averaged 9.4 assists in the playoffs and has gone for 10+ in four of his last six games vs OKC. The Thunder allow 26.7 assist opportunities per game to centers — 3rd worst in the postseason.

Why It Hits:

  • 9.7 assists projected tonight

  • 43.1% of Denver’s assists run through Jokic

  • Sharp line movement supports the Over

🔥 Josh Hart Over 9.5 Rebounds (+102)

Hart is playing 38+ minutes per game and pulling down over 11 boards per night this postseason. With Mitchell Robinson playing limited minutes, Hart has stepped up as New York’s primary rebounder.

Why It Hits:

  • Celtics allow 12.1 RPG to forwards (7th most)

  • Hart had 13 boards in Game 1

  • Projection = 11.2 rebounds tonight

🔥 Jalen Williams Over 5.5 Assists (+120)

Williams thrives when guarded by perimeter defenders like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, with a 27% usage spike in those matchups. He’s cleared 5.5 assists in four of his last five playoff games and has a rolling road average of 6.4.

Why It Hits:

  • Nuggets allow 12.7 assists per 48 to opposing wings

  • +120 odds with an 8.9% value edge

  • Projected to play over 40 minutes in a tight game

🔥 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-125)

SGA has averaged 30.3 points per game against Denver this season, with recent playoff games of 40, 33, 28, and 31 points. His playoff usage rate has climbed +7% and he’s the focal point of OKC’s offense.

Why It Hits:

  • Scored 33+ in 2 of last 3 vs Denver

  • Line moved from 31.5 to 32.5 based on sharp action

  • Our model gives this a 55.5% probability to hit

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⚠️ Disclaimer:

All analysis provided by DeepChamp AI is for entertainment and informational purposes only. This content does not constitute financial, legal, or professional betting advice. All forms of gambling carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. You should never wager more than you can afford to lose. DeepChamp AI and its creators are not liable for any financial losses or damages resulting from the use of this information. Always bet responsibly.