• DeepBet AI
  • Posts
  • The Best NBA Prop Bets for March 17, 2025: In-Depth Analysis

The Best NBA Prop Bets for March 17, 2025: In-Depth Analysis

March 17, 2025

If you're looking for the best value in NBA player prop bets for tonight’s games, we've got you covered. Using data-driven analysis, recent player trends, and sportsbook line movements, we’ve identified the top picks with the highest probability of hitting. Let’s dive into the breakdown of each prop bet and why they offer great value.

🔥 Take your sports betting research to the next level with DeepBet AI! Get expert insights, AI-driven analysis, and the edge you need—all in one app.

📲 Download now from the App Store:
➡️ https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepbet-ai/id6742149750

Start making smarter bets today! 🚀

Top Prop Bets for March 17, 2025

1. Luka Dončić Over 9.5 Rebounds (-118) — Lakers vs. Spurs

Why It’s a Good Bet:

  • Dončić has averaged 11.2 rebounds over his last five games.

  • Spurs allow 47.66 rebounds per game (ranked 29th in the NBA).

  • Victor Wembanyama is out, removing 11.2 rebounds per game from San Antonio’s lineup.

  • The expected high pace of the game (111.8 possessions) increases rebounding chances.

  • Probability: 63% (based on matchup and recent performances).

  • Value Rating: 8.4/10 (Line should be 10.5 based on matchup + pace factors).

2. Josh Hart Over 6.5 Assists (+105) — Knicks vs. Heat

Why It’s a Good Bet:

  • Hart has stepped up in playmaking without Jalen Brunson, averaging 7.5 APG in the last three games.

  • Miami ranks 6th-worst in opponent assists allowed (26.9 per game).

  • Brunson’s absence reallocates 32% of team assists, benefiting Hart.

  • Probability: 58% (implied -138 vs. +105 odds).

  • Value Rating: 7.8/10.

🔥 Take your sports betting research to the next level with DeepBet AI! Get expert insights, AI-driven analysis, and the edge you need—all in one app.

📲 Download now from the App Store:
➡️ https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepbet-ai/id6742149750

Start making smarter bets today! 🚀

3. Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 Assists (+105) — Heat vs. Knicks

Why It’s a Good Bet:

  • Adebayo has averaged 4.3 assists this season and 5+ in 4 of his last 8 games.

  • Knicks allow 12.3 assists per 48 minutes to centers (6th-worst in NBA).

  • Heat’s spacing issues without Wembanyama favor Adebayo’s playmaking role.

  • Edge: +0.7 assists above the line.

  • Probability: 54% (implied 48.8% at +105 odds).

  • Value Rating: 8.1/10.

4. Rudy Gobert Over 9.5 Rebounds (-145) — Timberwolves vs. Pacers

Why It’s a Good Bet:

  • Gobert has hit this mark in 8 of his last 11 games, averaging 12.4 RPG in February.

  • Pacers allow 14.1 RPG to centers (4th-most in NBA).

  • Expected possessions: 97 (high pace boosts rebounding chances).

  • Probability: 63.2%.

  • Value Rating: 8.2/10.

5. Nikola Jokić Over 12.5 Rebounds (-118) — Nuggets vs. Warriors

Why It’s a Good Bet:

  • Jokić has averaged 12.8 RPG this season.

  • Against the Warriors, he has averaged 13.3 RPG in his last 10 matchups.

  • Golden State’s frontcourt is undersized, allowing 17.7 RPG to centers in the last 7 games.

  • Probability: 58.1% (implied 54.1% at -118 odds).

  • Value Rating: 8/10.

6. Jabari Smith Jr. Over 6.5 Rebounds (-102) — Rockets vs. 76ers

Why It’s a Good Bet:

  • Smith has cleared 7+ rebounds in 7 of his last 10 games.

  • 76ers are missing Joel Embiid, making rebounding easier for opposing bigs.

  • Houston crushed Dallas in rebounding (67-34) just three days ago.

  • Probability: 58% (implied 50.5% at -102 odds).

  • Value Rating: 7.8/10.

🔥 Take your sports betting research to the next level with DeepBet AI! Get expert insights, AI-driven analysis, and the edge you need—all in one app.

📲 Download now from the App Store:
➡️ https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepbet-ai/id6742149750

Start making smarter bets today! 🚀

7. CJ McCollum Over 19.5 Points (+100) — Pelicans vs. Pistons

Why It’s a Good Bet:

  • McCollum has averaged 21.3 PPG and scored 26 in his last game.

  • Detroit allows 116.8 PPG (25th in NBA defense).

  • Zion Williamson’s absence boosts McCollum’s usage by 18%.

  • Probability: 60% (implied 48% at +100 odds).

  • Value Rating: 8.2/10.

8. Trey Murphy III Over 20.5 Points (-125) — Pelicans vs. Pistons

Why It’s a Good Bet:

  • Murphy has averaged 21.6 PPG, leading the Pelicans in scoring.

  • He has increased shot attempts 12% post-All-Star break.

  • Detroit allows the 4th-most PPG to wings (118.2 PPG allowed overall).

  • Probability: 60% (implied 55.6% at -125 odds).

  • Value Rating: 8.2/10.

Final Thoughts

Tonight’s NBA slate provides several profitable betting opportunities, with strong statistical backing and favorable line movements. Whether you’re looking for rebounding dominance from Jokić and Gobert, or capitalizing on increased playmaking roles for Hart and Adebayo, these bets offer solid value.

As always, bet responsibly and remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. Let’s cash some tickets tonight!

🔥 Take your sports betting research to the next level with DeepBet AI! Get expert insights, AI-driven analysis, and the edge you need—all in one app.

📲 Download now from the App Store:
➡️ https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepbet-ai/id6742149750

Start making smarter bets today! 🚀

Disclaimer:

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or gambling advice. All betting carries risk, and you should only wager amounts you can afford to lose. DeepBet AI and its creators are not responsible for any losses incurred based on this information.