Top NBA Prop Bets for February 28, 2025

🔹 Best Value Bets Today:

✔ Dyson Daniels Over 2.5 Steals (+114)

✔ Naz Reid Over 20.5 Points (-114)

✔ Onyeka Okongwu Over 2.5 Assists (-148)

✔ Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Blocks (+194) (High-risk, high-reward!)

If you’re looking for the best value bets in the NBA for February 28, 2025, you’re in the right place. Using AI-driven analysis, we’ve identified six top prop bets with the best statistical edges based on matchup data, player trends, and market movement.

From steals to assists to scoring props, here’s everything you need to know before placing your bets today.

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1. Dyson Daniels – Over 2.5 Steals (+114)

📍 Game: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Why This Bet?

Dyson Daniels has been an elite perimeter defender, leading the NBA in steals per game. He faces an Oklahoma City Thunder team that plays at the fastest pace in the league and ranks among the most turnover-prone teams.

Key Stats & Edge

• Season Steals Avg: 3.1 SPG

• Last 5 Games: 3.0 SPG

• Thunder’s Turnover Rate: 14% (bottom 10 in NBA)

• Projected Probability: 54% (vs. implied ~47% at +114 odds)

• Blowout Risk: Moderate – Could limit minutes but doesn’t impact steal rate significantly

Verdict:

Daniels has cleared this line in 6 of his last 10 games. Given the high turnover potential from OKC’s backcourt (SGA and Jalen Williams average 7 combined turnovers per game), this bet offers solid value.

✅ Best Bet: Over 2.5 Steals (+114)

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2. Naz Reid – Over 20.5 Points (-114)

📍 Game: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz – 6:40 PM PT

Why This Bet?

Naz Reid has stepped up in Minnesota’s offense, averaging 21.4 PPG over the last seven games. With Julius Randle out, his scoring role has increased significantly.

Key Stats & Edge

• Last 7 Games: 21.4 PPG

• Jazz Defense vs PFs: 3rd-worst in the NBA (47% FG allowed)

• Projected Points: 22.3 vs Line 20.5

• Blowout Risk: Low (Wolves only -2.5 favorites)

Verdict:

With a 3.8% edge over the betting line, Reid faces a weak Utah defense and should get plenty of shot attempts.

✅ Best Bet: Over 20.5 Points (-114)

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3. Jaden McDaniels – Under 18.5 Points (-122)

📍 Game: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz – 6:40 PM PT

Why This Bet?

McDaniels has struggled to hit this inflated scoring line. His season scoring average is just 12.0 PPG, and recent high-scoring games appear to be outliers rather than a trend.

Key Stats & Edge

• Season Avg: 12.0 PPG

• Last 10 Games: 13.0 PPG (Only 2 games over 18.5)

• Historical Performance vs Jazz: Max 17 PTS in any matchup

• Projected Probability: 68% chance to go under

Verdict:

With low usage and a tough matchup against Lauri Markkanen, McDaniels is unlikely to clear 18.5 points.

✅ Best Bet: Under 18.5 Points (-122)

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4. Onyeka Okongwu – Over 2.5 Assists (-148)

📍 Game: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks – 4:40 PM PST

Why This Bet?

Okongwu has taken on a bigger playmaking role with Jalen Johnson and Larry Nance Jr. out. He has consistently hit this assist number when given increased usage.

Key Stats & Edge

• Last 7 Games: 3.1 APG (79% hit rate on this prop)

• Thunder’s AST% Allowed to Centers: 4th-most in NBA

• Projected Probability: 63% (vs implied 59% at -148 odds)

Verdict:

With a favorable matchup and increased passing responsibilities, Okongwu should easily clear this line.

✅ Best Bet: Over 2.5 Assists (-148)

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5. Andrew Nembhard – Over 4.5 Assists (+112)

📍 Game: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET

Why This Bet?

With T.J. McConnell out, Nembhard’s playmaking role has expanded significantly.

Key Stats & Edge

• Last 5 Games Without McConnell: 4.8 APG

• Projected Probability: 54% (vs implied 47% at +112 odds)

• Minutes Projection: 29 MPG in a close game

Verdict:

At +112 odds, Nembhard’s assist prop offers great value.

✅ Best Bet: Over 4.5 Assists (+112)

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6. Evan Mobley – Over 1.5 Blocks (+194)

📍 Game: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics – 4:40 PM PST

Why This Bet?

Mobley is one of the NBA’s best rim protectors, and he faces a Boston team that ranks 4th in paint points per game, providing him with plenty of block opportunities.

Key Stats & Edge

• Season Avg: 1.6 Blocks per game

• Last 3 Games: 2 Blocks per game

• Blocks vs Boston (Previous Matchup): 3 Blocks

• Projected Probability: 42% (vs implied 34% at +194 odds)

Verdict:

At +194 odds, this high-value bet offers a 22% edge and a strong risk-reward ratio.

✅ Best Bet: Over 1.5 Blocks (+194)

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Final Thoughts:

🔹 Best Value Bets Today:

✔ Dyson Daniels Over 2.5 Steals (+114)

✔ Naz Reid Over 20.5 Points (-114)

✔ Onyeka Okongwu Over 2.5 Assists (-148)

✔ Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Blocks (+194) (High-risk, high-reward!)

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